Who it is for
For readers interested in financial crises, recurring speculative cycles, credit expansion, market timing, and the psychological foundations of booms and depressions.
English reader · Project Gutenberg #75687
II. The Cycles of Speculation
The Cycles of Speculation. English-only reading by default; switch among English, Chinese, and Spanish, or compare languages side by side.
Chapter summary
Gibson argues that major speculative swings usually precede visible changes in general business. Reviewing nineteenth-century crises, he observes that stock prices often peaked well before panics, while industrial production was still breaking records. He favors a psychological explanation for recurring booms and depressions but warns against mechanically trading ten-year cycles; history is useful only when causes, credit conditions, and present parallels are analyzed.
Modern reader note
The crisis history and cycle theories in this chapter predate modern central banking, securities regulation, national accounting, and contemporary empirical finance. Its causal claims should be treated as historical arguments rather than predictive rules.
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